The Future of India's EV Industry: Will It Replace Petrol Cars by 2035?

In the summer of 2023, something remarkable happened on Bengaluru's Outer Ring Road: for a few hours on a Sunday morning, an observer standing at a busy junction counted more electric two-wheelers passing than petrol ones. It was a single data point, not a trend. But it captured something important — the EV transition in India is not going to look like anywhere else in the world. It is going to be led by two-wheelers and three-wheelers, not cars. And it is going to happen faster than most analysts expected.

Where India Stands in 2024

India’s electric vehicle (EV) momentum has continued strongly beyond FY2024. In FY2025, EV registrations crossed ~2.1–2.3 million units, marking another 25–30% year-on-year growth, though slightly slower than the previous surge—indicating the market is now entering a more stable expansion phase.

Segment Breakdown

Government policy has been the single biggest driver of EV adoption. The FAME-II (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) scheme disbursed over ₹10,000 crore in subsidies before its conclusion in March 2024. Its successor scheme is under design, with the government keen to shift the emphasis from purchase subsidies to manufacturing incentives. 

The PLI scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cell batteries — targeting 50 GWh of domestic battery manufacturing capacity by 2030 — is the most significant long-term policy. India currently imports almost all its EV batteries, primarily from China. Domesticating that supply chain is both an economic and a strategic imperative. In a significant move to attract global EV manufacturers, the government announced in March 2024 a new EV import policy allowing companies to import cars at a reduced 15 percent customs duty (down from 100 percent) if they commit to setting up manufacturing in India within three years. Tesla — which has been eyeing the Indian market for years — is expected to be an early beneficiary.

The Infrastructure Gap: Still the Biggest Headache

India had approximately 12,000 public EV charging stations as of early 2024 — a number that sounds reasonable until you consider that China has over 2.7 million. The charging anxiety problem remains very real for car buyers, particularly outside metros. The government has targeted 1 charging station every 25 km on national highways under the Bureau of Energy Efficiency's mandate, but the rollout has been patchy. The two-wheeler story is different — most buyers charge at home overnight, making range anxiety largely irrelevant in the sub-150 km daily commute bracket. This is one reason the two-wheeler transition is so much further ahead.

Will It Be Petrol-Free by 2035?

The honest answer: not entirely. India's 2035 target for 30 percent EV penetration across vehicle categories is ambitious but achievable, according to NITI Aayog projections. Three-wheelers — auto-rickshaws — are already heading toward near-total electrification, driven by economics (running costs are dramatically lower) and state-level mandates in cities like Delhi. Two-wheelers will follow, with EV penetration possibly crossing 40 percent by 2030 in urban markets. Passenger cars will be slower given infrastructure gaps and price premiums. Long-haul trucking will barely move in this decade. 'Replacing petrol entirely by 2035' is a political talking point, not an engineering reality. What is real and what is happening is a rapid, uneven, two-wheelers-first electrification that could make India's mobility landscape genuinely unrecognisable by the end of this decade.